Though Barisan Nasional’s Datuk Dublin Unting Ingkot's passing was peaceful, the wake of his death has left a scramble in his quiet constituency in the remote jungles of Sarawak.

The stakes are high in Batang Ai for both the ruling coalition and Pakatan Rakyat as they strive to win the approval of some 8,000 voters on the April 7 by-election.

Unting had won the seat in the May 2006 state election by a majority of 806 votes, beating Nicholas Bawin Anggat who at the time contested under the SNAP ticket.

It is Bawin who is likely to be fielded against BN’s candidate Malcolm Mussem Lamoh, although former MP Jawah Gerang’s name has also been bandied about as a potential candidate.

Both Bawin and Gerang are popular local boys but the former has the advantage as he is currently PKR’s Batang Ai chairman. Bawin is also favoured by Jeffrey Kitingan, PR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s special representative for Sarawak.

BN looks hard to beat from a logistical standpoint. It has more funds and party members, as well as helicopters, boats and four wheel-drives – all very important for campaigning in a remote constituency like Batang Ai.

PR’s considerably smaller resources, meanwhile, will be stretched thin as two other by-elections, in Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang, will be held at the same time.

In the peninsula, PR’s Internet-savviness helped it overcome its limited resources. In the jungles of Batang Ai, the Internet is not going to make much of a difference.

However, this traditionally BN seat is not going to be a cakewalk for the ruling coalition. There are some factors working in favour of PR.

Mainly, it’s in the form of its leader, Anwar, who has promised the restoration of Native Customary Rights (NCR) land rights if PR wins the state in the future. This is a big issue for the locals as they want to see an end to private companies taking over NCR land with the help of the state government.

Anwar has also promised a higher oil royalty, important for a poor state like Sarawak, and to make the next chief minister a Dayak, a long-term goal of the Dayaks who form the majority community there.

PR is also counting on the negative perception of Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, who has overstayed his welcome after holding the post for 27 years, to help swing the tide in its favour this time around.

It will be a close fight. “I can tell you right now that the margin of victory will be less than 500 votes either way it goes,” says elections expert Ong Kian Ming.

The stakes are high. Of the three by-elections to be held on the same day, Batang Ai is the most important one for BN as it is the only one that it is defending and the only one that it has a real chance of winning.

Analysts generally concur that Bukit Selambau is as good as lost while even BN-analysts like Fui K. Soong of Insap and Khaw Veon Szu of Sedar say that Bukit Gantang will be a big wake-up call for the ruling coalition.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat says that a loss in Batang Ai would inevitably be interpreted as “a rejection of Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Taib Mahmud as the leaders of the country and the state, respectively.”

Losing three by-elections so soon after the Umno General Assembly will be a terrible way for Najib to start his term as Malaysia’s sixth prime minister.

But a lot is riding on Batang Ai for PR as well. Anwar, who heads PKR in East Malaysia, has named Sabah and Sarawak as key frontline states that will enable PR to wrest control of the federal government by the next general election.

A defeat for BN there could very well mark the beginning of the end of the Taib dynasty and the BN’s dominance in the state. A defeat for PR would not be as devastating but it would certainly take the wind out of its sail and seriously stall the momentum unleashed by the March 8 tsunami in the Peninsula from reaching East Malaysia. - The Edge

Written by Melody Song
Source: http://nationdaily.blogspot.com/2009/03/high-stakes-in-batang-ai.html

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