Professor Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, political analyst at Univerisiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
I have been watching the past six or seven elections in Kelantan, and I have observed that for every 100 votes, 30 goes to Barisan Nasional and 30 goes to PAS while the remaining middle 40 swings between BN and PAS. The 40 must constitute young people from Kuala Lumpur and the Klang Valley.

I believe the pulling factor is Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, because BN campaigned very badly at Manik Urai and the locals dislike the candidate and leaders there. They were also very cynical towards Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin's announcements for more projects. If they did not then vote for someone they hated, they must have voted for Najib. I believe the voters came to please him.

I cannot fault PAS, as they ran a very well-oiled campaign, and they have a very good campaign machinery. I expected a victory of 2,000 votes to PAS, especially given the record turnout. This (margin of victory) is miniscule by the standards of PAS!

Pakatan Rakyat may claim that this is a significant victory, but this is not a moral victory for PR at all. It will be more difficult for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to pose a challenge to Najib now, since they have been compared a lot in terms of who had been the better deputy prime minister. Now Najib has stepped out of Anwar's shadow. I would say that this is a good key-performance-index showing for Umno and BN!

 

Ong Kian Ming, political analyst at Duke University
While most had expected the margin of victory for PAS to decrease, the eventual double digit was a surprise to many, probably including BN. PAS' narrow victory is a wake-up call for PAS as well as Pakatan. PAS must ask itself the extent to which the discussion of unity talks with Umno and the schisms it created within PAS contributed to its narrow electoral victory. Pakatan must also ask itself how it can refocus its political strategy to neutralise Najib’s growing political momentum.

It was expected that PAS would win this seat, but the BN has gained a moral victory by reducing the margin by such a degree. There were three things which helped the BN gain this moral victory -- PAS lost a popular incumbent, the unity talks suggestions created a schism within PAS, and Najib's political momentum gained though his policy activism, such as the July 11 gifts to the people and abolishing the teaching of science and mathematics in English.

 

Wong Chin Huat, journalism lecturer at Monash University Sunway and political analyst
Oh dear! Looking at their victory, PAS has seen a decrease in their absolute popular vote while BN's is looking up. It is a wake-up call for PAS. If it cannot remain united and talks to the enemy, how can your voters decide? Still, I would not over-read the results as the same dynamics may not apply elsewhere.

PAS was certainly more cautious this time around, as they predicted slightly over 50% in votes, and look at the result. Najib has certainly helped in offering feel-good vibes to Umno members who actually came back to vote, and his performance and announcements cannot be denied. The real question is, how many PAS supporters have turned to Umno? The results show that Umno has at least consolidated its vote, if not getting the middle ground.

 

Khaw Veon Szu, executive director of Gerakan think tank Sedar
It is a good sign for both sides. Manik Urai is a PAS stronghold, but with the party in disarray it shows that they cannot take things for granted. In the interest of a democratic, two-party system, PAS must get their act together. For BN, it is a good sign as it shows that Najib has been pushing the right buttons, by introducing more liberalisation measures. This will encourage Najib to push forward with more of these measures and that he is sending out good messages. However, the by-election should be examined in terms of margin and which candidate is victorious.

This margin is good for both sides as it builds a more credible competition. The infighting has caused PAS to lose their traditional support and they have been in the limelight recently for the wrong reasons. But overall, this is good for Malaysia.

 

Written by Lam Jian Wyn

Source: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/18624-instant-reaction-manek-urai.html

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